John Sickels Crystal Ball on 4 Players

[Fish Troll]

Scott Olsen Crystal Ball
By John Sickels
Posted on Sat Mar 03, 2007 at 04:07:45 PM CST






Phil Hughes Crystal Ball
By John Sickels
Posted on Fri Mar 02, 2007 at 09:15:05 AM CST


Crystal Ball: Phil Hughes

A Crystal Ball for Phil Hughes is dangerous for my sanity. First of all, he has zero major league experience, so this is even more highly speculative than your average CB. Secondly, Yankee fans seem to think that Hughes will turn into something like a combination of Walter Johnson and Roger Clemens, and that he'll do this right off the bat in the majors. Hughes is an outstanding prospect, certainly, the best overall pitching prospect in baseball in my opinion. But he's still just a prospect. There are all kinds of things that can go wrong with him. Hughes' PECOTA comps include guys like Bert Blyleven, Jim Maloney, and Don Drysdale...but they also include Rick Ankiel, Bobby Bradley, and Erv Palica.

So basically, whatever I do with this CB will be criticized by someone. If'it is too optimistic, the statheads will start screaming TINSTAAPP!!!!!. If it is too pessimistic, Yankees fans will put blog posts all over the internet about anti-Yankee bias on my part.
Bottom line: fire away all you want. I want discussion; that is the point of all this. But I'm not going to take it personally no matter what anyone says about it, positive or negative. It is simply one possible outcome, knowing what we know about Hughes today.




Cole Hamels Crystal Ball
By John Sickels
Posted on Wed Feb 28, 2007 at 10:13:00 AM CST






Crystal Ball: Adam Wainwright
By John Sickels
Posted on Sat Feb 24, 2007 at 12:56:37 PM CST

[seaver41]

Very interesting. I remember seeing projections like these for Wright and Maine. I remember they predicted Wright going to Baltimore and hitting over 500 home runs in his career.

[seaver41]

Here are some older ones on some notable players


This Crystal Ball assumes that
1. he will stay relatively healthy
2. he will keep his work ethic (a problem when he was in the lower minors) in top gear throughout his career.




I was slow to give Melky his due over the last few years. Have I overcompensated here?



Becomes a manager, winning a World Championship with the Cubs in 2038.



images.minorleagueball.com/images/admin/zimmerman2.jpg
This is the kind of career that Ryan Zimmerman is capable of having...this would make him one of the best third basemen in history. Remember he has excellent defense to go with these hitting stats.

[Fish Troll]

Hard to find a all-star player this days according to John.

[seaver41]

I'm not enamored of Wang's low strikeout rate, but groundball pitchers can get away with it much more easily than fly ball guys. Wang needs strong defensive infield support to truly thrive, and fortunately he will usually have this with the Yankees. I think he will have a good career as an inning-eating ground ball machine, but when he starts to fade I think it will happen quickly.










This Crystal Ball assumes good health, no blown elbows and no shredded rotator cuffs. 2011 is a non-arm related injury, like a knee or something, that costs him much of '11 and part of '12 but doesn't ruin his career otherwise.

Although I like to caution people not to take these Crystal Balls too seriously, I do think that Verlander is quite capable of having a career like that shown above. Note tremendous "peak" season in 2010 and a late-career stellar campaign in 2018, leading the Tigers to World Series wins both years.

[Fish Troll]

Now the last 2 players prediction had all-star writting all over it.

[seaver41]

Wright and Santana or Wright and Verlander?

[Zack Attack Troll]

John's CB's aren't necessarily what he thinks will happen, just meant to stimulate discussion.

[Fish Troll]

seaver41 said:

Wright and Santana or Wright and Verlander?

Look like you change it. Wright and Verlander

[seaver41]

I put the wrong bracket on Santana's stats.

[Josh]

I don't think this guy knows what he's doing. Look at his Cole Hammels prediction! That's pathetic. And than look at his Hughes projection. Yeah he hasn't thrown one major league pitch, but scouts around the league say he has major league ready stuff right now. He isn't quite ready yet, but please, that's no reason to give such a crappy projection.

[Zack Attack Troll]

Josh what are you talking about? You should be thrilled if Hughes does that. He predicts an injury that slows him down. Can't control that.

Hamels has always had injury problems, nothing wrong with predicting they won't end.

[seaver41]

admin said:

I don't think this guy knows what he's doing. Look at his Cole Hammels prediction! That's pathetic. And than look at his Hughes projection. Yeah he hasn't thrown one major league pitch, but scouts around the league say he has major league ready stuff right now. He isn't quite ready yet, but please, that's no reason to give such a crappy projection.

It's a prediction. Don't get all upset about it.

[seaver41]

I don't agree with his Reyes predictions one. Reyes is becoming more patient at the plate and can be more consistent. His HR numbers I can see fluctuating. Also I think he'll have more years of 50-60 SBs. I hope he's right about Reyes being a career-long Met since he'd be the first.

[cardsfan643]

Wainwright predictions will probably be close.