Red Sox-Pirates-Marlins deal

[seaver41]

Only 2 NL teams want Dunn. One of them is Arizona and they offered Chad Tracy. No one seems to want Dunn.

[Fuck Mike Brown]

Stark just said that the interest is picking up, and Tampa Bay is looking at him now

[seaver41]

Tampa needs a righty more though.

[Fuck Mike Brown]

No matter what, the Reds won't end up getting what they want for Dunn. If they don't plan on extending him, I hope they can find something decent to get, although they shouldn't take something just for the sake of trading him. The D'Backs offered Chad Tracy, which is an absolutely pathetic offer

[Zack Attack Troll]

10:33pm: The Palm Beach Post says a tentative agreement has been reached, despite Gammons' comments. Here's the deal:

Marlins get: Manny Ramirez, cash, prospect from Red Sox
Red Sox get: Jason Bay, John Grabow
Pirates get: Ryan Tucker, Jeremy Hermida, one prospect from Red Sox, perhaps another prospect from Marlins

Seems like a nice deal for the Pirates.

[seaver41]

They should get another Marlins prospect

[seaver41]

Baseball Prospectus believes the Pirates will get Stanton, Hermida, and Tucker.

[Zack Attack Troll]

See, that's a hell of a deal. Especially if they can get another Boston prospect.

[THE Mister Marlin]

The Pirates always get raped in deals... Don't hold your breath on the Pirates being "winners"...

Overall, The Red Slops are winners in this deal...

I hope the Red Sox give us Masterson or Bowden as well... (THE Two top Pitching Prospects for the Sox)

[Fish Troll]

So, apparently, this trading deadline won’t be a boring one, with the Red Sox, Pirates, and Marlins engaged in talks that would send Manny Ramirez to Florida, Jeremy Hermida to Pittsburgh, and Jason Bay to Boston, along with various assorted minor leaguers and cash floating around.

There’s a lot of interesting things about this deal, but this morning, I’ll tackle this deal from Florida’s perspective. Depending on how things go this afternoon, we’ll get to the Boston/Pittsburgh perspectives a bit later.

How much does this help the Marlins?

Florida paid a high price for the Hermida/Ramirez upgrade, believing that Manny’s extra offense could push them into the playoffs. But Jeremy Hermida is no slouch himself. The in-seaosn Marcel tool has him at .276/.352/.458 for the rest of the season, compared to it’s .287/.386/.517 projection for the rest of Manny’s 2008. Clearly, Manny’s better, but like with the Teixeira-Kotchman trade, the upgrade isn’t huge.

In fact, over the course of 237 PAs (the projected total for Hermida), Marcel thinks the offensive difference between the two is about five or six runs. The offensive difference… five runs. Manny’s also a pretty horrible fielder (though the Green Monster makes most zone based stats overstate how bad), and the defensive difference between the two is nearly as large as the offensive difference (The Fielding Bible has Hermida as +4 plays so far in 2008 with Ramirez at -15). Even over two months, the defensive difference between the two will almost certainly be worth at least 3 or 4 runs, and that’s being really kind to Manny.

In fact, it’s arguable that this trade will actually make the Marlins worse for the rest of 2008. Their two best hitters, Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, are both right-handed, and adding Manny to that now makes the middle of their line-up much more susceptible to right-handed specialists. It’s a minor thing, but when they’re not getting a player substantially better than the one they’re giving up, the minor things can make a difference.

When you factor both offense and defense into the equation, this is basically a push for Florida. This wouldn’t make them better by any real margin, and it would cost them significant future assets. As I write this, the deal isn’t complete yet, so hopefully for Marlins fans, someone in Miami will come to their sense.

[seaver41]

This deal is dead. Marlins wanted more money. Everyone is blaming each other.

[Josh]

I wish Manny was traded..too bad the deal is dead now though..atleast we know he'll be gone by next season.