Post by seaver41 on Mar 5, 2007 16:48:35 GMT -5
mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070305&content_id=1827802&vkey=spt2007news&fext=.jsp
Any manager will tell you it takes 25 men (and sometimes more) to win a championship, but what if the top prize went to the best starting lineup? Which team would finish on top if the race went to the best starting eight?
We're not talking best offense, best defense or most speed but the best, as in best all-around in all phases of the game. Like all subjective appraisals, part of the analysis lies in determining which factors of the game to place the most emphasis on, or whether to give them all equal weight. Everyone has their own methods for evaluating a team.
For purposes of this exercise, we used the 1976 Cincinnati Reds' starting eight as the benchmark example.
That team had arguably one of the best all-around starting eights in baseball history with defense (four Gold Glove winners up the middle: catcher Johnny Bench, shortstop Dave Concepcion, second baseman Joe Morgan and center fielder Cesar Geronimo), speed (seven of the eight starters had 10 or more stolen bases and four had 20 or more) and a prolific offense. The eight regulars averaged 81 RBIs, five had 10 or more homers and five had batting averages of .306 or better.
The '76 Reds lineup also had balance (four right-handed hitters, three left-handed hitters and one switch-hitter) and the optimum kind of experience. There were no rookies in the lineup (the youngest was Ken Griffey Sr., then a 26-year-old) and no one over 35 (Tony Perez, 34, was the oldest). And all of the starters played just about every day. Only Bench, at catcher, did not appear in at least 139 games.
The game has changed considerably since then, and determining a best all-around starting eight today is a much more difficult task. We sought help from around the game to come up with an answer. The results are based on an unscientific sampling of baseball personnel, including scouts, on the condition they would not be quoted and not be allowed to select their own team.
We simply asked: Which team has the best all-around starting eight in the Major Leagues right now?
The criteria meant no designated hitters were considered, which hurt the ratings of some of the obvious contenders like the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox. No platoon situations were considered, which eliminated other stout starting lineups like Cleveland's, because the Indians will likely have at least two platoon situations this season.
A few teams have the potential to be the best in the coming season, but had more question marks at this point of the spring to fall short of the top five, though they do deserve mention. Included in this group are the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the Texas Rangers, the San Diego Padres, the St. Louis Cardinals, the Minnesota Twins, the Seattle Mariners and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
That left five nominees in the Best of Baseball Series, lineups category. Five teams with starting eights who could prove to be the best in 2007:
No. 5 -- Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox had the best fielding percentage in the Major Leagues last season and should be among the elite defenses in the game again this time after adding shortstop Julio Lugo and right fielder J.D. Drew. And with Drew, Lugo and Manny Ramirez among the starting eight, the Red Sox should once again top 800 runs, expecially if catcher Jason Varitek and outfielder Coco Crisp bounce back and second baseman Dustin Pedroia lives up to expectations.
No. 4 -- Philadelphia Phillies
No one has a better right side of the starting infield than the Phillies' Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. The left side isn't too shabby either, with shortstop Jimmy Rollins and third baseman Wes Helms (who hit a career-high .329 for the Marlins last year and posted a .938 fielding percentage at the postion). The outfield is good but not great -- if it were, this lineup would rate a lot higher. The Phillies led the National League in runs last year and should score even more this season.
No. 3 -- Chicago Cubs
The Cubs? Hard to believe, but on paper the projected starting lineup is formidable: catcher Michael Barrett, first baseman Derrek Lee, second baseman Mark DeRosa, shortstop Cesar Izturis, third baseman Aramis Ramirez, left fielder Matt Murton, center fielder Alfonso Soriano and right fielder Jacque Jones. Lee, Ramirez and Soriano could hit 35 or more homers and drive in 100 or more runs apiece. Soriano, Barrett, Murton and Izturis run better than average for the positions they play. During the last two years, seven of the projected Cubs regulars have hit .285 or better for a season at least once. Izturis is the exception, and he hit .288 the last time he was healthy for a full year (2004).
No. 2 -- New York Yankees
The Yankees led the Majors in 2006 with 930 runs scored, 60 more than the No. 2 team, the Indians. A potent starting eight led by Derek Jeter (.343 average, 14 homers, 97 RBIs), Alex Rodriguez (.290, 35, 121), Johnny Damon (.285, 24, 80), Robinson Cano (.342, 15, 78) and Jorge Posada (.277, 23, 93) helped fuel that impressive production. The Yankees have decent speed -- New York was second in the American League in steals, but among the starting eight, only Jeter and Damon ran regularly with a combined 59 stolen bases. Defensively, the Yankees' starting eight is adequate at best (Jeter's Gold Gloves notwithstanding). Only three AL teams had fewer total chances last season and only four AL teams committed more errors. Age is also a consideration. Only Cano is under 30, Rodriguez turns 32 in July. The other six already are or will be at least 33 years old during the 2007 season.
No. 1 -- New York Mets
Among NL teams, only the Braves and Phillies scored more runs than the Mets, who led the NL in steals in '06. Four starters hit .300 or better last season -- Jose Reyes, David Wright, Paul Lo Duca and Moises Alou (with the Giants) -- and five had 74 or more RBIs (Reyes, Wright, Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran and Alou). Seven projected starters (Delgado with 38, Reyes 19, Wright 26, Shawn Green 15, Beltran 41, Jose Valentin 18 and Alou 22) hit at least 15 home runs last season. Beltran, Reyes and Wright combined for 102 steals. Catcher Lo Duca, shortstop Reyes and center fielder Beltran give the Mets a very strong defensive lineup up the middle. They probably won't score as many runs as the Yankees, but the Mets' advantage in speed and defense gives their starting eight the advantage.
We're not talking best offense, best defense or most speed but the best, as in best all-around in all phases of the game. Like all subjective appraisals, part of the analysis lies in determining which factors of the game to place the most emphasis on, or whether to give them all equal weight. Everyone has their own methods for evaluating a team.
For purposes of this exercise, we used the 1976 Cincinnati Reds' starting eight as the benchmark example.
That team had arguably one of the best all-around starting eights in baseball history with defense (four Gold Glove winners up the middle: catcher Johnny Bench, shortstop Dave Concepcion, second baseman Joe Morgan and center fielder Cesar Geronimo), speed (seven of the eight starters had 10 or more stolen bases and four had 20 or more) and a prolific offense. The eight regulars averaged 81 RBIs, five had 10 or more homers and five had batting averages of .306 or better.
The '76 Reds lineup also had balance (four right-handed hitters, three left-handed hitters and one switch-hitter) and the optimum kind of experience. There were no rookies in the lineup (the youngest was Ken Griffey Sr., then a 26-year-old) and no one over 35 (Tony Perez, 34, was the oldest). And all of the starters played just about every day. Only Bench, at catcher, did not appear in at least 139 games.
The game has changed considerably since then, and determining a best all-around starting eight today is a much more difficult task. We sought help from around the game to come up with an answer. The results are based on an unscientific sampling of baseball personnel, including scouts, on the condition they would not be quoted and not be allowed to select their own team.
We simply asked: Which team has the best all-around starting eight in the Major Leagues right now?
The criteria meant no designated hitters were considered, which hurt the ratings of some of the obvious contenders like the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox. No platoon situations were considered, which eliminated other stout starting lineups like Cleveland's, because the Indians will likely have at least two platoon situations this season.
A few teams have the potential to be the best in the coming season, but had more question marks at this point of the spring to fall short of the top five, though they do deserve mention. Included in this group are the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the Texas Rangers, the San Diego Padres, the St. Louis Cardinals, the Minnesota Twins, the Seattle Mariners and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
That left five nominees in the Best of Baseball Series, lineups category. Five teams with starting eights who could prove to be the best in 2007:
No. 5 -- Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox had the best fielding percentage in the Major Leagues last season and should be among the elite defenses in the game again this time after adding shortstop Julio Lugo and right fielder J.D. Drew. And with Drew, Lugo and Manny Ramirez among the starting eight, the Red Sox should once again top 800 runs, expecially if catcher Jason Varitek and outfielder Coco Crisp bounce back and second baseman Dustin Pedroia lives up to expectations.
No. 4 -- Philadelphia Phillies
No one has a better right side of the starting infield than the Phillies' Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. The left side isn't too shabby either, with shortstop Jimmy Rollins and third baseman Wes Helms (who hit a career-high .329 for the Marlins last year and posted a .938 fielding percentage at the postion). The outfield is good but not great -- if it were, this lineup would rate a lot higher. The Phillies led the National League in runs last year and should score even more this season.
No. 3 -- Chicago Cubs
The Cubs? Hard to believe, but on paper the projected starting lineup is formidable: catcher Michael Barrett, first baseman Derrek Lee, second baseman Mark DeRosa, shortstop Cesar Izturis, third baseman Aramis Ramirez, left fielder Matt Murton, center fielder Alfonso Soriano and right fielder Jacque Jones. Lee, Ramirez and Soriano could hit 35 or more homers and drive in 100 or more runs apiece. Soriano, Barrett, Murton and Izturis run better than average for the positions they play. During the last two years, seven of the projected Cubs regulars have hit .285 or better for a season at least once. Izturis is the exception, and he hit .288 the last time he was healthy for a full year (2004).
No. 2 -- New York Yankees
The Yankees led the Majors in 2006 with 930 runs scored, 60 more than the No. 2 team, the Indians. A potent starting eight led by Derek Jeter (.343 average, 14 homers, 97 RBIs), Alex Rodriguez (.290, 35, 121), Johnny Damon (.285, 24, 80), Robinson Cano (.342, 15, 78) and Jorge Posada (.277, 23, 93) helped fuel that impressive production. The Yankees have decent speed -- New York was second in the American League in steals, but among the starting eight, only Jeter and Damon ran regularly with a combined 59 stolen bases. Defensively, the Yankees' starting eight is adequate at best (Jeter's Gold Gloves notwithstanding). Only three AL teams had fewer total chances last season and only four AL teams committed more errors. Age is also a consideration. Only Cano is under 30, Rodriguez turns 32 in July. The other six already are or will be at least 33 years old during the 2007 season.
No. 1 -- New York Mets
Among NL teams, only the Braves and Phillies scored more runs than the Mets, who led the NL in steals in '06. Four starters hit .300 or better last season -- Jose Reyes, David Wright, Paul Lo Duca and Moises Alou (with the Giants) -- and five had 74 or more RBIs (Reyes, Wright, Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran and Alou). Seven projected starters (Delgado with 38, Reyes 19, Wright 26, Shawn Green 15, Beltran 41, Jose Valentin 18 and Alou 22) hit at least 15 home runs last season. Beltran, Reyes and Wright combined for 102 steals. Catcher Lo Duca, shortstop Reyes and center fielder Beltran give the Mets a very strong defensive lineup up the middle. They probably won't score as many runs as the Yankees, but the Mets' advantage in speed and defense gives their starting eight the advantage.
