Post by Fish Troll on Mar 9, 2007 22:57:11 GMT -5
As part of the prep work for my Hot Stove Heater on farm systems, I did a cursory ranking of all 30 farm systems, which I present below (rankings are from best (1) to worst (30)). Just a quick note on my criteria:
• Players who have lost their rookie eligibility don't count for this exercise.
• Both ability and performance count when looking at individual players, and both ceiling and depth count when looking at systems.
• I'm a strong believer in the "time value of prospects" -- the idea that a prospect's value increases significantly as he gets closer to the big leagues. So an organization like Washington, with most of its best prospects in short-season ball in 2006, scores poorly here, because those prospects are four or five years away from the majors, and the attrition rate on those kids is going to be high.
One other thing to bear in mind is how volatile these rankings are. Matt Garza finished the last season at 50 innings, so he's a rookie in 2007 by the slimmest of margins; without him, the Twins would rank a few notches lower. By the middle of '07, a number of these teams will have moved around as players have "graduated" from their farm systems to the big leagues.
1. Tampa Bay: Packed with high-ceiling bats and a lot of pitching depth, although most of it was in A-ball in 2006.
2. Colorado: Troy Tulowitzki and Chris Iannetta give them two outstanding up-the-middle prospects, and outfielder Dexter Fowler, who turned down a chance to go to some liberal arts school in Cambridge, Mass., looks like an outstanding late sign from 2005.
3. Arizona: One of the most impressive waves of hitting prospects that any team has assembled continues in 2007 with Chris Young ready to step in and Carlos Gonzalez and Justin Upton coming along behind him.
4. Kansas City: Little depth, but their top three prospects (Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Luke Hochevar) are as good as any organization's top three.
5. N.Y. Yankees: Massive improvement since 2005, buttressed by some trades for prospects and a higher-ceiling approach to the draft.
6. Cleveland: Perhaps the best depth system in the game, with one impact prospect in Adam Miller and two left-handed starters who are close to that in Scott Lewis and Chuck Lofgren.
7. N.Y. Mets: Three potential impact guys in Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, and Phil Humber (if he's healthy), but the system lacks depth, with a lot of their better prospects still in short-season ball.
8. L.A. Angels: The next wave of Angels arms is coming, led by Nick Adenhart and Jose Arredondo. Brandon Wood and Erick Aybar are both above-average prospects who are close to reaching the majors.
9. Milwaukee: The Brewers' top pitching prospect, Yovanni Gallardo, doesn't have the name value of Philip Hughes or Homer Bailey, but he's just about in their class.
10. Minnesota: Very good pitching depth, with Matt Garza about to graduate from the system, but their high school bats just haven't panned out.
11. Detroit: The Gary Sheffield deal kept them out of the top 10, but Cameron Maybin is just a tick below the Jose Tabatas and Fernando Martinezes of the world, while Andrew Miller should be one of the top five pitching prospects in the minors by midseason.
12. Atlanta: Depth without ceiling, especially since one-time blue-chip prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia now has several dents in his armor (injuries, hitting struggles and his sheer size, which may move him out from behind the plate).
13. Baltimore: Slow progress up these rankings, but the system is starting to build some depth, which should pay off in 2008. Brandon Snyder's struggles in 2006 were a huge disappointment.
14. Boston: The Josh Beckett deal took out two of their top prospects, but they still have future Gold Glove outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury and right-handed starter Clay Buchholz, both about a year away from reaching the majors, and I rated their 2006 draft the best of all clubs'.
15. Cincinnati: Most of the system's value is concentrated on Homer Bailey, perhaps the best pitching prospect in baseball.
16. Chi. White Sox: The Brandon McCarthy and Freddy Garcia trades helped to restock a system depleted by deals for veterans. Ryan Sweeney and Josh Fields are both ready to step into major-league roles if needed.
17. L.A. Dodgers: No team was hurt more in these rankings by promotions than the Dodgers, as Matt Kemp would be one of the top 10 prospects in baseball if he qualified, and Chad Billingsley spent most of last year in the majors when the initial plan was to give him a year in Triple-A. Scott Elbert's control troubles are also a concern.
18. Houston: Hunter Pence and Troy Patton are both solid prospects, but the Astros have given up a number of draft picks to sign free agents, and their 2005 first-rounder, Tulane left-hander Brian Bogusevic, still hasn't gotten past the Midwest League (Class A).
19. Chi. Cubs: Other than the enigmatic Felix Pie, there isn't much close to the majors here.
20. Pittsburgh: Andrew McCutchen already looks like the steal of the 2005 draft's first round, but behind him and 2006 first-rounder Brad Lincoln, there's very little here.
21. Oakland: Their 2003 class was a huge bust, and their first three picks in 2004 are all probably washouts as well, with the fourth pick in that draft, Huston Street, already comfortably ensconced in the majors.
22. Florida: To be fair, all of the Marlins' prospects spent 2006 in the majors. They do have a wave of big-tools pitchers coming, including Sean West and Chris Volstad.
23. Washington: The Nats have some promising kids (like Colten Willems) who spent the year in short-season ball, but nothing remotely close to the majors. Their system was also badly hurt by the period of MLB ownership, which ran a bare-bones scouting budget and provided little incentive for the team to think long-term.
24. Toronto: Adam Lind has star potential, but the only other impact prospect here is outfielder Travis Snider, who spent 2006 in rookie ball with a team that no longer exists.
25. Seattle: The Mariners have given up a lot of picks to sign free agents, and their last two first-rounders (Jeff Clement in 2005 and Brandon Morrow in 2006) both look like long-term injury risks.
26. Texas: Probably the shocker of the list for me, as the Rangers' touted DVD trio hasn't panned out as planned, with Thomas Diamond looking destined for the pen and John Danks dealt to pick up the more major-league ready Brandon McCarthy.
27. San Francisco: No surprise here, as the Giants have willfully surrendered their first-round picks for years until they were forced by the rules to keep their No. 1 in 2006, which they used to select Tim Lincecum, now their top prospect.
28. St. Louis: Saved from the bottom spot by Colby Rasmus, who just needs to pass the Double-A test to become one of the top 10 to 15 prospects in the minors.
29. Philadelphia: Thin system which got thinner by the sudden rise of Cole Hamels. The closest solid-average prospect to the majors here is Carlos Carrasco, who spent the year in low-A.
30. San Diego: The system's best prospects are Kevin Kouzmanoff, a low-power corner bat just acquired from Cleveland, and pitcher Cesar Carrillo, who missed the last half of the season with elbow trouble. Years of unproductive drafts have really taken a toll here.
• Players who have lost their rookie eligibility don't count for this exercise.
• Both ability and performance count when looking at individual players, and both ceiling and depth count when looking at systems.
• I'm a strong believer in the "time value of prospects" -- the idea that a prospect's value increases significantly as he gets closer to the big leagues. So an organization like Washington, with most of its best prospects in short-season ball in 2006, scores poorly here, because those prospects are four or five years away from the majors, and the attrition rate on those kids is going to be high.
One other thing to bear in mind is how volatile these rankings are. Matt Garza finished the last season at 50 innings, so he's a rookie in 2007 by the slimmest of margins; without him, the Twins would rank a few notches lower. By the middle of '07, a number of these teams will have moved around as players have "graduated" from their farm systems to the big leagues.
1. Tampa Bay: Packed with high-ceiling bats and a lot of pitching depth, although most of it was in A-ball in 2006.
2. Colorado: Troy Tulowitzki and Chris Iannetta give them two outstanding up-the-middle prospects, and outfielder Dexter Fowler, who turned down a chance to go to some liberal arts school in Cambridge, Mass., looks like an outstanding late sign from 2005.
3. Arizona: One of the most impressive waves of hitting prospects that any team has assembled continues in 2007 with Chris Young ready to step in and Carlos Gonzalez and Justin Upton coming along behind him.
4. Kansas City: Little depth, but their top three prospects (Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Luke Hochevar) are as good as any organization's top three.
5. N.Y. Yankees: Massive improvement since 2005, buttressed by some trades for prospects and a higher-ceiling approach to the draft.
6. Cleveland: Perhaps the best depth system in the game, with one impact prospect in Adam Miller and two left-handed starters who are close to that in Scott Lewis and Chuck Lofgren.
7. N.Y. Mets: Three potential impact guys in Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, and Phil Humber (if he's healthy), but the system lacks depth, with a lot of their better prospects still in short-season ball.
8. L.A. Angels: The next wave of Angels arms is coming, led by Nick Adenhart and Jose Arredondo. Brandon Wood and Erick Aybar are both above-average prospects who are close to reaching the majors.
9. Milwaukee: The Brewers' top pitching prospect, Yovanni Gallardo, doesn't have the name value of Philip Hughes or Homer Bailey, but he's just about in their class.
10. Minnesota: Very good pitching depth, with Matt Garza about to graduate from the system, but their high school bats just haven't panned out.
11. Detroit: The Gary Sheffield deal kept them out of the top 10, but Cameron Maybin is just a tick below the Jose Tabatas and Fernando Martinezes of the world, while Andrew Miller should be one of the top five pitching prospects in the minors by midseason.
12. Atlanta: Depth without ceiling, especially since one-time blue-chip prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia now has several dents in his armor (injuries, hitting struggles and his sheer size, which may move him out from behind the plate).
13. Baltimore: Slow progress up these rankings, but the system is starting to build some depth, which should pay off in 2008. Brandon Snyder's struggles in 2006 were a huge disappointment.
14. Boston: The Josh Beckett deal took out two of their top prospects, but they still have future Gold Glove outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury and right-handed starter Clay Buchholz, both about a year away from reaching the majors, and I rated their 2006 draft the best of all clubs'.
15. Cincinnati: Most of the system's value is concentrated on Homer Bailey, perhaps the best pitching prospect in baseball.
16. Chi. White Sox: The Brandon McCarthy and Freddy Garcia trades helped to restock a system depleted by deals for veterans. Ryan Sweeney and Josh Fields are both ready to step into major-league roles if needed.
17. L.A. Dodgers: No team was hurt more in these rankings by promotions than the Dodgers, as Matt Kemp would be one of the top 10 prospects in baseball if he qualified, and Chad Billingsley spent most of last year in the majors when the initial plan was to give him a year in Triple-A. Scott Elbert's control troubles are also a concern.
18. Houston: Hunter Pence and Troy Patton are both solid prospects, but the Astros have given up a number of draft picks to sign free agents, and their 2005 first-rounder, Tulane left-hander Brian Bogusevic, still hasn't gotten past the Midwest League (Class A).
19. Chi. Cubs: Other than the enigmatic Felix Pie, there isn't much close to the majors here.
20. Pittsburgh: Andrew McCutchen already looks like the steal of the 2005 draft's first round, but behind him and 2006 first-rounder Brad Lincoln, there's very little here.
21. Oakland: Their 2003 class was a huge bust, and their first three picks in 2004 are all probably washouts as well, with the fourth pick in that draft, Huston Street, already comfortably ensconced in the majors.
22. Florida: To be fair, all of the Marlins' prospects spent 2006 in the majors. They do have a wave of big-tools pitchers coming, including Sean West and Chris Volstad.
23. Washington: The Nats have some promising kids (like Colten Willems) who spent the year in short-season ball, but nothing remotely close to the majors. Their system was also badly hurt by the period of MLB ownership, which ran a bare-bones scouting budget and provided little incentive for the team to think long-term.
24. Toronto: Adam Lind has star potential, but the only other impact prospect here is outfielder Travis Snider, who spent 2006 in rookie ball with a team that no longer exists.
25. Seattle: The Mariners have given up a lot of picks to sign free agents, and their last two first-rounders (Jeff Clement in 2005 and Brandon Morrow in 2006) both look like long-term injury risks.
26. Texas: Probably the shocker of the list for me, as the Rangers' touted DVD trio hasn't panned out as planned, with Thomas Diamond looking destined for the pen and John Danks dealt to pick up the more major-league ready Brandon McCarthy.
27. San Francisco: No surprise here, as the Giants have willfully surrendered their first-round picks for years until they were forced by the rules to keep their No. 1 in 2006, which they used to select Tim Lincecum, now their top prospect.
28. St. Louis: Saved from the bottom spot by Colby Rasmus, who just needs to pass the Double-A test to become one of the top 10 to 15 prospects in the minors.
29. Philadelphia: Thin system which got thinner by the sudden rise of Cole Hamels. The closest solid-average prospect to the majors here is Carlos Carrasco, who spent the year in low-A.
30. San Diego: The system's best prospects are Kevin Kouzmanoff, a low-power corner bat just acquired from Cleveland, and pitcher Cesar Carrillo, who missed the last half of the season with elbow trouble. Years of unproductive drafts have really taken a toll here.
Yep Yankees is in the top 5.
