Post by Fish Troll on May 4, 2007 20:25:18 GMT -5
The Marlins shocked the baseball world last season by winning 78 games with a cast of rookies and no-names and a payroll south of Alex Rodriguez's annual salary. They are playing well again this season, with a record of 13-14, which isn't all that surprising. But the way Florida is winning is once again turning heads around the league.
The Marlins are mashing. They lead the National League in runs scored per game at 5.59. In the DH-assisted American League, only the juggernaut Yankees (5.77) and Indians (5.60) have been more productive.
This early in the season, it's tempting to write off the Fish's offensive prowess as a small sample-size fluke. But a closer look at some key stats reveal otherwise.
The 2007 Marlins are essentially the same cast that ranked eighth in runs scored in the NL last season, but the way they are being used is quite different. First-year manager Fredi Gonzalez isn't nearly as devoted to smallball as his predecessor, Joe Girardi. Gonzalez has toned down a running game that resulted in 58 caught stealings last season, the second-highest total in the league, compared to 110 successful attempts. This year the Fish have only been caught four times (out of 16 attempts). How damaging are caught stealings? They are near-disastrous. A successful stolen base adds .24 runs; a caught stealing costs .68 runs. All that running they did last year actually cost the team about 13 runs. This year they are breaking even.
Also, Gonzalez doesn't kill promising rallies by having his key hitters to sacrifice bunt the way Girardi often did. The Marlins had 40 sacrifice hits by non-pitchers last season; 12 of those came from NL Rookie of the Year Hanley Ramirez and All-Star second baseman Dan Uggla. This year the club only has only five such sacrifices, and three of those came from bench players. Sac bunting with your best hitters is a sure way to prevent your team from putting up a crooked number. (There's a sobering thought for Yankees fans who may have to cope with YES broadcaster Girardi as the club's next manager.)
The Hardball Times keeps a nifty stat called Gross Production Average (GPA for short), which is a variation of OPS except that it is park-adjusted and scaled down to resemble a regular batting average, with .200 being lousy, .265 about average and .300 outstanding. The Marlins' GPA is .273, just a shade behind the Phillies and Braves (.274 each) and the Mets (.276). Why is this important? Because it shows the Marlins' impressive run total isn't out of whack with the performances of its individual hitters.
The Marlins are batting .282 with runners in scoring position, which is high but not abnormally so; the Cubs (.285) and the Padres (.283) rank higher in the NL. Plus, the Fish are batting only .235 with runners in scoring position and two outs, which is usually another flukey stat that tends to inflate a team's run total.
Because it's a young lineup with players who are still on the upswing of their careers, it's difficult to say that any of these hitters are playing significantly over their heads. Perhaps first baseman Mike Jacobs, who is batting .307, will cool down, but it wouldn't be all that surprising if Miguel Cabrera finished the season at his current OPS of 1.075 or if Ramirez batted close to .327 all season. Even if there is some regression, part of that may be offset by increased production from Uggla (he's currently hitting .223) and catcher Miguel Olivo (.219).
The bench is strong. With outfielders Alejandro De Aza and Jeremy Hermida injured, reserves Alfredo Amezaga (.423 SLG) and Joe Borchard (.327 OBP) have proven to be solid replacements. And Cody Ross and Aaron Boone have combined to drive in 19 runs.
Is this an offense that can lead the NL in runs all season? Possibly, depending on when slow-starting Mets sluggers David Wright and Carlos Delgado break out of their slumps (Wright hit a three-run blast on Thursday night) or if Braves second baseman Kelly Johnson is going to be Joe Morgan all season. It's not a stretch to state the Marlins have an upper-tier offense, one that could finish in the top four in the league and one that should be feared.
The Marlins are mashing. They lead the National League in runs scored per game at 5.59. In the DH-assisted American League, only the juggernaut Yankees (5.77) and Indians (5.60) have been more productive.
This early in the season, it's tempting to write off the Fish's offensive prowess as a small sample-size fluke. But a closer look at some key stats reveal otherwise.
The 2007 Marlins are essentially the same cast that ranked eighth in runs scored in the NL last season, but the way they are being used is quite different. First-year manager Fredi Gonzalez isn't nearly as devoted to smallball as his predecessor, Joe Girardi. Gonzalez has toned down a running game that resulted in 58 caught stealings last season, the second-highest total in the league, compared to 110 successful attempts. This year the Fish have only been caught four times (out of 16 attempts). How damaging are caught stealings? They are near-disastrous. A successful stolen base adds .24 runs; a caught stealing costs .68 runs. All that running they did last year actually cost the team about 13 runs. This year they are breaking even.
Also, Gonzalez doesn't kill promising rallies by having his key hitters to sacrifice bunt the way Girardi often did. The Marlins had 40 sacrifice hits by non-pitchers last season; 12 of those came from NL Rookie of the Year Hanley Ramirez and All-Star second baseman Dan Uggla. This year the club only has only five such sacrifices, and three of those came from bench players. Sac bunting with your best hitters is a sure way to prevent your team from putting up a crooked number. (There's a sobering thought for Yankees fans who may have to cope with YES broadcaster Girardi as the club's next manager.)
The Hardball Times keeps a nifty stat called Gross Production Average (GPA for short), which is a variation of OPS except that it is park-adjusted and scaled down to resemble a regular batting average, with .200 being lousy, .265 about average and .300 outstanding. The Marlins' GPA is .273, just a shade behind the Phillies and Braves (.274 each) and the Mets (.276). Why is this important? Because it shows the Marlins' impressive run total isn't out of whack with the performances of its individual hitters.
The Marlins are batting .282 with runners in scoring position, which is high but not abnormally so; the Cubs (.285) and the Padres (.283) rank higher in the NL. Plus, the Fish are batting only .235 with runners in scoring position and two outs, which is usually another flukey stat that tends to inflate a team's run total.
Because it's a young lineup with players who are still on the upswing of their careers, it's difficult to say that any of these hitters are playing significantly over their heads. Perhaps first baseman Mike Jacobs, who is batting .307, will cool down, but it wouldn't be all that surprising if Miguel Cabrera finished the season at his current OPS of 1.075 or if Ramirez batted close to .327 all season. Even if there is some regression, part of that may be offset by increased production from Uggla (he's currently hitting .223) and catcher Miguel Olivo (.219).
The bench is strong. With outfielders Alejandro De Aza and Jeremy Hermida injured, reserves Alfredo Amezaga (.423 SLG) and Joe Borchard (.327 OBP) have proven to be solid replacements. And Cody Ross and Aaron Boone have combined to drive in 19 runs.
Is this an offense that can lead the NL in runs all season? Possibly, depending on when slow-starting Mets sluggers David Wright and Carlos Delgado break out of their slumps (Wright hit a three-run blast on Thursday night) or if Braves second baseman Kelly Johnson is going to be Joe Morgan all season. It's not a stretch to state the Marlins have an upper-tier offense, one that could finish in the top four in the league and one that should be feared.
sportsillustrated.cnn.com/si_blogs/mlb/chatter_up/2006/2007/05/team-thats-full-of-surprises.html
Amazing you would had thought our lineup will challenge the total K's record again as Willis, Sanchez, Olsen once again need to pitch those 1 run game to get those wins, but its the offense that are winning ballgames this year.
