Cardinals Preview

[#1 Jays Fan]

Last season: 78-84
3rd in N.L. Central
Manager: Tony LaRussa, 13th season, 2,375-2,070 (534) career record

New faces: RHP Matt Clement (free agent/bos), 3B Troy Glaus (trade/TOR), IF Cesar Izturis (free agent/PIT), IF D'Angelo Jimenez (free agent/WSH), C Jason LaRue (free agent/KC), RHP Kyle Lohse (free agent/PHI), 1B Josh Phelps (free agent/PIT), LHP Ron Villone (free agent/NYY), RHP John Wasdin (free agent/PIT)

Left town: C Gary Bennett (LAD), IF Russell Branyan (MIL), IF Miguel Cairo (SEA), RHP Andy Cavazos (NYM), SS David Eckstein (TOR), CF Jim Edmonds (SD),
RHP Brian Falkenborg (LAD), LHP Randy Keisler (MIN), RHP Troy Percival (TB), OF John Rodriguez (TB), 3B Scott Rolen (TOR), OF So Taguchi (PHI), RHP Kip Wells (COL)

Overview: This team is a mere shell of the one that swept the Tigers to win the World Series in 2006. David Eckstein and Scott Rolen, integral parts of that championship year are now Blue Jays, Jim Edmonds patrols centre for the Padres, and Chris Carpenter's health will keep him out likely until the All-Star break. Suddenly, Albert Pujols is surrounded by retreads and what if's. What this team needs to improve on above all else is their defence, which was 15th ranked in the National League last season. One has to wonder how much longer Tony LaRussa will be at the helm of this team after his mean spirited ways forced Rolen, a fan favourite, out of town, and his handling of the pitcher staff, leading to injuries, has been questioned.
Stat to ponder: One year removed from a World Series title, injuries and sub-par performances led the Cards rotation to post a 5.04 ERA, the highest in club history in a non-strike season. Top prospect: OF Colby Rasmus. He was the reason that the Cards let long-time centre fielder Jim Edmonds leave through free agency. Has an arm strong enough to right, but his speed makes him ideal in centre. Has been ranked as high as five among prospects by some scouting services.

Hitting
2007 AVG (RANK): .274 (11th), RUNS/GAME: 4.48 (22nd), HR: 141 (24th)
This team is, offensively, in flux. They still have all-world talent Pujols in the middle of the lineup, but other than him a lot of questions involving health. Rick Ankiel made an unbelievable transition from pitcher to slugger to hit 43 home runs and 143 RBI between AAA and the Majors, but stumbled down the stretch after HGH use was revealed in the press. Glaus comes over the Blue Jays after suffering through an injury-plagued season which saw his home run total fall from 38 to 20. Adam Kennedy had knee problems last season while Chris Duncan suffered through a sports hernia. The arrival of Cesar Izturis, who missed 160 games over the last two seasons with a variety of injuries, will hopefully settle down an erratic infield defence.

Pitching
2007 ERA (RANK): 4.65 (20th), OPP AVG: .271 (20th)
With Carpenter out until at least mid-season, they are banking Mark Mulder can return to form after missing parts of the last two seasons to shoulder woes. Adam Wainright went from World Series clinching closer to rotation mainstay last season and notched 14 wins. Braden Looper also made the transition from the bullpen to post a dozen wins, and Joel Pineiro posted six wins in 11 starts after a trade deadline deal with the Red Sox. They are banking that another former Red Sox starter, Matt Clement, can rebound from shoulder surgery that cost him all of '07. Jason Isringhausen remains the closer despite injury questions of his own, but he was able to save 32 games last season at age 35.
Statsman's non-binding prediction: 5th place for a team that has one superstar and a bunch of average players. Even the great LaRussa can't make chicken salad out of... well, you know.

[Marlins]

If Albert Pujols is able to play the whole season they could finish 4th, or maybe even 3rd...but even without him, they're still a lot better than the Pirates.

[Zack Attack Troll]

Last place.

The Pirates will pitch themselves ahead of the Cards.

[Marlins]

doublestix said:

Last place.

The Pirates will pitch themselves ahead of the Cards.

That's pretty deap man...I mean, any team with Albert Pujols on it is better than the Pirates.

I'm guessing your thinking Pujols is going to opt for surgery...because otherwise, that would be a really big stretch.

[Zack Attack Troll]

Yes, half way through the season he will have the surgery. But they'll already be in last place, I think the Pirates pitching has a chance to be pretty good.

[Marlins]

doublestix said:

Yes, half way through the season he will have the surgery. But they'll already be in last place, I think the Pirates pitching has a chance to be pretty good.

They may have a chance to be good, but how good is that chance?

Their ace, Ian Snell, is 24-26 with a 4.40 ERA in his career. I guess the only real positive thing about his career stats is that he had a 3.76 ERA last season...but even with that ERA, he still went 9-12.

Then Tom Gorzelanny is 16-16 with a 4.04 ERA in his career. Last season he had a 3.88 ERA, and the season before that he had a 3.79 ERA in 11 starts. He seems to be in line for a decent season--but is still having some slight shoulder problems, which could lead to a trip to the DL.

Paul Maholm is 21-26 with a 4.60 ERA in his career. Last season he was 10-15 with a 5.02 ERA. I'm not really sure what to say about him...he's just a bad pitcher.

Matt Morris has lost it all...he used to be effective, but those days are long gone. Last season he went 3-4 with a 6.10 ERA. He hasn't had an ERA below 4 since 2003. He also has a 9.64 ERA this Spring in 5 starts.

Lastly, Zack Duke is 21-25 with a 4.20 ERA in his career. Last season he went 3-8 with a 5.53 ERA. Just another bad pitcher...

In summary: Matt Morris is the only Pirates SP with a career ERA under 4 or a career winning record. And clearly, those days are gone. So yeah, the Pirates pitching COULD be good, but they haven't shown anything yet.

The Cardinals pitching is poor as well, but not nearly as bad.

[Zack Attack Troll]

I think Gorz and Snell will post sub-4 ERA's, just like last year. Duke was a STUD his rookie year, but really fell off last year with injuries and such. I think he'll rebound to a low 4 ERA range. I've heard some good things about Maholm this spring, and I know he has good stuff (which is why he was the 8th in 2003 draft). Now, Morris stinks now, he will probably be ineffective. I'm thinking the Pirates will be a minor surprise this year and win 75-78 games.

[Marlins]

doublestix said:

I think Gorz and Snell will post sub-4 ERA's, just like last year. Duke was a STUD his rookie year, but really fell off last year with injuries and such. I think he'll rebound to a low 4 ERA range. I've heard some good things about Maholm this spring, and I know he has good stuff (which is why he was the 8th in 2003 draft). Now, Morris stinks now, he will probably be ineffective. I'm thinking the Pirates will be a minor surprise this year and win 75-78 games.

That's really thinking positive there. But as I said, even when Pirates pitchers have posted sub-4 ERA's, they've still come out with records under .500 most of the time.

[Zack Attack Troll]

Probably. I thought the Pirates we're going to be pretty good last year (relatively speaking) but it didn't quite come to that when Duke really was bad and Bay had a big time down year. I'm just going to pick them to do relatively well again...I may be wrong but what the hell.

[Marlins]

doublestix said:

Probably. I thought the Pirates we're going to be pretty good last year (relatively speaking) but it didn't quite come to that when Duke really was bad and Bay had a big time down year. I'm just going to pick them to do relatively well again...I may be wrong but what the hell.

Well, something else that's also really hurting them is their attitude. I've read some reports about the Pirates, especially Jason Bay, and they all seem frustrated. I mean, even when their pitchers performs well, they don't get any credit. And when a hitter heats up, he gets no protection. I could see Bay making a comeback year, but he really seems to be struggling. Lets please not forget--he hit just .247 last season, and is hitting just .264 this Spring Training. ST stats really don't mean much a lot of times--but when a player really struggles one season then he comes back and has a horrible ST, that means something. Bay hasnt been in a situation where he could just sit back and relax...he should be working on his game to improve. The Pirates lineup is really weak...Freddy Sanchez is their only hitter who hit above .300 last season. Bay really wont get much support even if he turns it on--and he probably wont get a lot of good pitches to hit.