Post by #1 Jays Fan on Mar 27, 2008 11:34:51 GMT -5
The sun has set over Florida's Gulf Coast and the Blue Jays have flown north to begin, what they hope, is a return to the playoffs for the first time since 1993. Do they have the talent to qualify? Yes, but a lot will have to break their way and most importantly, they must stay healthier than they did in 2007.
So far this spring that hasn't been the case with projected fifth starter Casey Janssen lost for the entire season following surgery to repair a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder, Scott Rolen breaking a finger on the weekend, and closer B.J. Ryan still not completely 100 percent following 'Tommy John' surgery last May. Whether it's bad luck or bad karma is something that can be debated, but these setbacks have made their task even more daunting.
STARTING ROTATION:
ROY HALLADAY, A.J. BURNETT, DUSTIN McGOWAN, SHAUN MARCUM, JESSE LITSCH, CASEY JANSSEN (DL)
Halladay is the quintessential ace. Takes the ball every five days and gives the team a chance to win. He also keeps the team from going into a losing streak of any significance. Burnett remains an enigma. Brought in to be a 20-game winner, he has done just that although it took him two injury interrupted seasons to get there. His pure stuff is undeniable and let's hope that he doesn't choose to activate his opt-out after the season and leave us thinking, "what if?".
McGowan finally arrived last season, coming within three outs of a no-hitter against the N.L. Champion Rockies, and finally living up to his promise. Whether he can replicate his 2007 success is a question mark. Marcum has proven to be a very serviceable Major League starter, although there have been some questions about fitness and durability. Litsch has turned into a bulldog in his limited exposure. Came into camp leaner and meaner than the 'aw shucks' rookie that made the leap from AA a year ago.
With Casey Janssen lost for the year - the guy the front office thought was best suited for the fifth slot - the rotation is paper thin and with four-fifths of the starters having past health issues, this is a concern. Halladay's problems have been more bad luck (line drive breaks his leg in '06, appendicitis attack in '07) than anything structural, but he hasn't made all of his starts since his Cy Young winning 2003 season and now finds himself in his 30's. Don't get me wrong, this guy still has the drive and stuff to win 20 this season. If he does, and Burnett's stuff finally, FINALLY crosses paths with durability, this is a one-two punch potent enough to take a team to the playoffs. And it would be interesting to see how McGowan would react to having to keep up with the big boys. Will it happen that way? Probably not, but it could and that's why this rotation is such a big tease.
BULLPEN:
B.J. RYAN (DL), JEREMY ACCARDO, BRANDON LEAGUE, SCOTT DOWNS, BRIAN WOLFE, BRIAN TALLET, JASON FRASOR, RANDY WELLS
The Janssen situation, coupled with B.J. Ryan's continuing rehab from last May's 'Tommy John' surgery means that the most important member of the relief crew will be Brandon League. When Ryan returns to full-time duties - probably in early May - the relievers will take a step down the ladder. Jeremy Accardo will close in the interim and his 30 saves in 35 opportunities last season proved he can do it.
League steps into the set-up role that Janssen excelled at and if it's 2006 Brandon (2.53 ERA in 33 games) and not 2007 Brandon (6.17 ERA in 14 games) then things should role smooth. League has rediscovered his power-sinker, but if he doesn't get it back then others in the pen will be forced into roles that they might not be able to handle and this could become a problem. Hopefully, manager John Gibbons will be able to spread the work around and keep his best relievers from early burnout. I realize the lack of offence last season forced 'Gibby' to manage every game like it was sudden death but it also put a lot of strain on Accardo, Janssen and Scott Downs. The one pitcher who looks like he has the stuff to step up is Brian Wolfe, who threw nothing but strikes in Florida.
Tallet and Frasor still have Major League-calibre arms, but need more work to stay sharp. The unknown is Rule V draftee Randy Wells, unscored upon in the Grapefruit League and struck out over a batter an inning last season at Triple-A in the Cubs chain.
CATCHERS:
GREGG ZAUN, ROD BARAJAS
Incumbent Zaun will get the bulk of the starts, but don't be shocked if this becomes a time-share by the All-Star break. Nothing against Zaun, as tough and savvy a veteran as any player in franchise history, but Barajas has more power on a team that needs all that it can get, and has a better throwing arm. Opponents ran hog wild last season, and while much of the blame should be laid at the feet of the pitchers' inability to hold runners close, the arrival of Barajas (career 28.9% caught stealing rate) will hopefully stop the giving away of free bases.
INFIELDERS:
LYLE OVERBAY, AARON HILL, DAVID ECKSTEIN, SCOTT ROLEN (DL), JOHN McDONALD, MARCO SCUTARO
Everything was moving along swimmingly until Rolen broke the middle finger on his right hand with a week left in training camp. His return is unknown, but hopefully it will be no more than a month. Marco Scutaro will play in the interim next to the other big acquisition of the off-season, sparkplug lead-off man David Eckstein. With the decision that some defence would have to be sacrificed to prop up the offence, John McDonald goes back to a reserve role, but don't be shocked if his defence is called upon late in many games.
Aaron Hill continues along his road to stardom and has become a complete player. By all accounts, Lyle Overbay's broken hand woes of last season are behind him and his line-drive bat is a welcomed return. As a unit last season, the Blue Jays infield combined to drive in just 265 runs, the second fewest in the Majors. This unit, especially when Rolen finally returns, should vastly improve on those numbers.
OUTFIELDERS:
ALEX RIOS, VERNON WELLS, MATT STAIRS, SHANNON STEWART, BUCK COATS
Rios was the team's top hitter last season and, on the verge of signing a rumoured six-year deal, much is expected from the 27-year old right fielder. He had a career-high 24 HR, 85 RBI and 17 steals and the feeling is there's a lot more where that came from.
Wells' 2007 season was basically a write-off with a shoulder injury zapping him of his power stroke. Like Overbay, he appears to be back to normal which bodes well for the offence. Over his last four "healthy" seasons Wells has averaged 105 RBI. Stairs and Stewart will platoon in left. There's no doubt they'll hit, but their defence will be an on-going concern. Coats, who had a strong camp after coming over from the Cubs system, will give them a left-handed hitting option and gives the bench some much needed speed.
DESIGNATED HITTER:
FRANK THOMAS
This is a big question mark. 'The Big Hurt' is a notoriously slow starter (.231 at the end of May last season, .303 the rest of the way) and it took him until the fourth last game this spring to finally go yard. Much will be made of the plate appearance clause in his contract which will trigger a 2009 option, but the fact is, if he's not hitting and others are, manager Gibbons must put his best line-up on the field. And let's not forget, Thomas turns 40 in the last week of May and the end, eventually, comes for all great hitters.
BENCH STAFF:
John Gibbons enters the final year of his current deal, with a career record of 270-266, and only Cito Gaston and Bobby Cox have managed more games for the Blue Jays. For the sake of the team, he needs to engineer a successful April to off-set injuries to three key performers. I guess we'll know pretty early what type of season this is going to be with the Jays opening the final season at the House That Ruth Built, and then they host the World Champion Red Sox to open their own home schedule.
We'll also have to see what effect the shuffle in the coaching ranks - Ernie Whitt to first base, Marty Pevey at third, and Brian Butterfield to the bench and becomes Gibby's right-hand man - has on the temperament of this evolving team.
FINAL THOUGHTS:
I'll be interested to see, with my own eyes, the return to health of Wells and Overbay. If they can hit like they have in the past, Rios and Hill continue making strides, the young, back two-thirds of the youngish rotation improves even more, and they can leave the injury bug in Dunedin, this team is talented enough to battle for the Wild Card. But it might all be for naught if they can't stay healthy. It will also be interesting to see how the fans react should they have a slow start. Lord knows Toronto sports fans have been patiently/stubbornly waiting on the Leafs, while also waiting for the Raptors to become a top three team in the East. I think these annual disappointments have made the populace, who have shelled out some serious coin to be entertained, feel left wanting.
And in this age of the $1.20 litre of gas (possibly $1.50 this summer) while the oil companies pull in record profits, I'm not sure how much longer these fans will remain patient.
So far this spring that hasn't been the case with projected fifth starter Casey Janssen lost for the entire season following surgery to repair a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder, Scott Rolen breaking a finger on the weekend, and closer B.J. Ryan still not completely 100 percent following 'Tommy John' surgery last May. Whether it's bad luck or bad karma is something that can be debated, but these setbacks have made their task even more daunting.
STARTING ROTATION:
ROY HALLADAY, A.J. BURNETT, DUSTIN McGOWAN, SHAUN MARCUM, JESSE LITSCH, CASEY JANSSEN (DL)
Halladay is the quintessential ace. Takes the ball every five days and gives the team a chance to win. He also keeps the team from going into a losing streak of any significance. Burnett remains an enigma. Brought in to be a 20-game winner, he has done just that although it took him two injury interrupted seasons to get there. His pure stuff is undeniable and let's hope that he doesn't choose to activate his opt-out after the season and leave us thinking, "what if?".
McGowan finally arrived last season, coming within three outs of a no-hitter against the N.L. Champion Rockies, and finally living up to his promise. Whether he can replicate his 2007 success is a question mark. Marcum has proven to be a very serviceable Major League starter, although there have been some questions about fitness and durability. Litsch has turned into a bulldog in his limited exposure. Came into camp leaner and meaner than the 'aw shucks' rookie that made the leap from AA a year ago.
With Casey Janssen lost for the year - the guy the front office thought was best suited for the fifth slot - the rotation is paper thin and with four-fifths of the starters having past health issues, this is a concern. Halladay's problems have been more bad luck (line drive breaks his leg in '06, appendicitis attack in '07) than anything structural, but he hasn't made all of his starts since his Cy Young winning 2003 season and now finds himself in his 30's. Don't get me wrong, this guy still has the drive and stuff to win 20 this season. If he does, and Burnett's stuff finally, FINALLY crosses paths with durability, this is a one-two punch potent enough to take a team to the playoffs. And it would be interesting to see how McGowan would react to having to keep up with the big boys. Will it happen that way? Probably not, but it could and that's why this rotation is such a big tease.
BULLPEN:
B.J. RYAN (DL), JEREMY ACCARDO, BRANDON LEAGUE, SCOTT DOWNS, BRIAN WOLFE, BRIAN TALLET, JASON FRASOR, RANDY WELLS
The Janssen situation, coupled with B.J. Ryan's continuing rehab from last May's 'Tommy John' surgery means that the most important member of the relief crew will be Brandon League. When Ryan returns to full-time duties - probably in early May - the relievers will take a step down the ladder. Jeremy Accardo will close in the interim and his 30 saves in 35 opportunities last season proved he can do it.
League steps into the set-up role that Janssen excelled at and if it's 2006 Brandon (2.53 ERA in 33 games) and not 2007 Brandon (6.17 ERA in 14 games) then things should role smooth. League has rediscovered his power-sinker, but if he doesn't get it back then others in the pen will be forced into roles that they might not be able to handle and this could become a problem. Hopefully, manager John Gibbons will be able to spread the work around and keep his best relievers from early burnout. I realize the lack of offence last season forced 'Gibby' to manage every game like it was sudden death but it also put a lot of strain on Accardo, Janssen and Scott Downs. The one pitcher who looks like he has the stuff to step up is Brian Wolfe, who threw nothing but strikes in Florida.
Tallet and Frasor still have Major League-calibre arms, but need more work to stay sharp. The unknown is Rule V draftee Randy Wells, unscored upon in the Grapefruit League and struck out over a batter an inning last season at Triple-A in the Cubs chain.
CATCHERS:
GREGG ZAUN, ROD BARAJAS
Incumbent Zaun will get the bulk of the starts, but don't be shocked if this becomes a time-share by the All-Star break. Nothing against Zaun, as tough and savvy a veteran as any player in franchise history, but Barajas has more power on a team that needs all that it can get, and has a better throwing arm. Opponents ran hog wild last season, and while much of the blame should be laid at the feet of the pitchers' inability to hold runners close, the arrival of Barajas (career 28.9% caught stealing rate) will hopefully stop the giving away of free bases.
INFIELDERS:
LYLE OVERBAY, AARON HILL, DAVID ECKSTEIN, SCOTT ROLEN (DL), JOHN McDONALD, MARCO SCUTARO
Everything was moving along swimmingly until Rolen broke the middle finger on his right hand with a week left in training camp. His return is unknown, but hopefully it will be no more than a month. Marco Scutaro will play in the interim next to the other big acquisition of the off-season, sparkplug lead-off man David Eckstein. With the decision that some defence would have to be sacrificed to prop up the offence, John McDonald goes back to a reserve role, but don't be shocked if his defence is called upon late in many games.
Aaron Hill continues along his road to stardom and has become a complete player. By all accounts, Lyle Overbay's broken hand woes of last season are behind him and his line-drive bat is a welcomed return. As a unit last season, the Blue Jays infield combined to drive in just 265 runs, the second fewest in the Majors. This unit, especially when Rolen finally returns, should vastly improve on those numbers.
OUTFIELDERS:
ALEX RIOS, VERNON WELLS, MATT STAIRS, SHANNON STEWART, BUCK COATS
Rios was the team's top hitter last season and, on the verge of signing a rumoured six-year deal, much is expected from the 27-year old right fielder. He had a career-high 24 HR, 85 RBI and 17 steals and the feeling is there's a lot more where that came from.
Wells' 2007 season was basically a write-off with a shoulder injury zapping him of his power stroke. Like Overbay, he appears to be back to normal which bodes well for the offence. Over his last four "healthy" seasons Wells has averaged 105 RBI. Stairs and Stewart will platoon in left. There's no doubt they'll hit, but their defence will be an on-going concern. Coats, who had a strong camp after coming over from the Cubs system, will give them a left-handed hitting option and gives the bench some much needed speed.
DESIGNATED HITTER:
FRANK THOMAS
This is a big question mark. 'The Big Hurt' is a notoriously slow starter (.231 at the end of May last season, .303 the rest of the way) and it took him until the fourth last game this spring to finally go yard. Much will be made of the plate appearance clause in his contract which will trigger a 2009 option, but the fact is, if he's not hitting and others are, manager Gibbons must put his best line-up on the field. And let's not forget, Thomas turns 40 in the last week of May and the end, eventually, comes for all great hitters.
BENCH STAFF:
John Gibbons enters the final year of his current deal, with a career record of 270-266, and only Cito Gaston and Bobby Cox have managed more games for the Blue Jays. For the sake of the team, he needs to engineer a successful April to off-set injuries to three key performers. I guess we'll know pretty early what type of season this is going to be with the Jays opening the final season at the House That Ruth Built, and then they host the World Champion Red Sox to open their own home schedule.
We'll also have to see what effect the shuffle in the coaching ranks - Ernie Whitt to first base, Marty Pevey at third, and Brian Butterfield to the bench and becomes Gibby's right-hand man - has on the temperament of this evolving team.
FINAL THOUGHTS:
I'll be interested to see, with my own eyes, the return to health of Wells and Overbay. If they can hit like they have in the past, Rios and Hill continue making strides, the young, back two-thirds of the youngish rotation improves even more, and they can leave the injury bug in Dunedin, this team is talented enough to battle for the Wild Card. But it might all be for naught if they can't stay healthy. It will also be interesting to see how the fans react should they have a slow start. Lord knows Toronto sports fans have been patiently/stubbornly waiting on the Leafs, while also waiting for the Raptors to become a top three team in the East. I think these annual disappointments have made the populace, who have shelled out some serious coin to be entertained, feel left wanting.
And in this age of the $1.20 litre of gas (possibly $1.50 this summer) while the oil companies pull in record profits, I'm not sure how much longer these fans will remain patient.
